Karl Schwartz souhaite qu'il soit simplement à la poursuite de la gloire sur la piste de course de motoneige. Au lieu, dans les années récentes, il a été contraint de courir après un temps froid de plus en plus insaisissable.

Schwartz, de Freeland, est président de la Midwest International Racing Association, un circuit de course de motoneige opérant principalement dans le Michigan depuis plus de 40 ans. Leurs courses du week-end attirent environ 100 équipes, des centaines de coureurs et de membres d'équipage, et des milliers d'autres fans, généralement dans le cadre du festival d'hiver d'une communauté locale.

Mais chaque année, à mesure que le climat du Michigan change, c'est de plus en plus difficile à faire.

"Nous courons sur la glace, pas de neige, " a-t-il dit. " Nous n'avons pas besoin de neige, nous avons besoin de températures froides. "

Les coureurs s'affrontent souvent sur des hippodromes forains, inondé de centaines de milliers de gallons d'eau pour tenter de construire une base de sol gelé que les machines des coureurs rongeront au cours d'un week-end de compétition. Ils ont besoin d'environ deux semaines de températures chez les adolescents pour créer les conditions appropriées. Avec une fréquence croissante, ça devient presque impossible à trouver, dit Schwartz.

"Malgré tous nos efforts pour déplacer notre calendrier, et arrosez ces pistes de course des semaines à l'avance, nous devons encore déplacer des dates, annuler des dates et courir dans des conditions moins que parfaites en raison du temps chaud, " il a dit.

« Cela a été un problème constant pour nous, surtout ces dernières années. ça dure depuis plus longtemps que ça, mais surtout les cinq dernières années, ça fait vraiment, vraiment problématique."

Le conseil d'administration de l'association de courses a tenu des réunions ces dernières années pour discuter de ce qu'elle peut faire, y compris déplacer plus de races plus au nord.

"(Mais) nous sommes déjà à Sault Ste. Marie, " dans l'est de la Péninsule Supérieure à la frontière canadienne, dit Schwartz. "Deux courses là-bas, et ils ne peuvent même pas avoir assez froid. Notre course à Ironwood (dans l'extrême ouest de l'UP) a eu des problèmes, trop.

« Quand vous ne pouvez pas obtenir de glace à la frontière canadienne, jusqu'où pouvez-vous aller plus au nord ?"

le froid du Michigan, hivers enneigés, et un mode de vie construit autour d'eux, sont perturbés par le changement climatique. Et pour les fêtes hivernales tributaires du froid, la neige et la glace—et les communautés qui dépendent de la relance économique à un moment lent que ces festivals apportent—cela provoque des difficultés à s'adapter, et même de survivre.

La région des Grands Lacs a connu une augmentation plus importante des températures moyennes annuelles que le reste des États-Unis continentaux et « les hivers se réchauffent plus rapidement que les étés, " a déclaré Richard Rood, professeur en sciences et ingénierie du climat et de l'espace à l'Université du Michigan.

"La planète dans son ensemble se réchauffe, mais des États comme le Wisconsin, Le Michigan et l'Illinois se réchauffent, plus rapide, " dit Don Wuebbles, professeur au Département des sciences de l'atmosphère de l'Université de l'Illinois.

Les chutes de neige dans le bassin des Grands Lacs ont diminué de 2,25 % de 1984 à 2013 par rapport à 1954 à 1983. Les chercheurs prévoient que les chutes de neige pourraient diminuer de près de 48 % d'ici 2080 dans un scénario de statu quo sans réduction des émissions de carbone humaines. Mais même dans un scénario plus optimiste, où les émissions de gaz à effet de serre sont considérablement réduites, les chutes de neige hivernales dans le bassin des Grands Lacs devraient diminuer de plus de 28 % d'ici 2080.

Le nombre de jours où la basse température descend en dessous de zéro, 32 degrés Fahrenheit, dans la région des Grands Lacs, les scientifiques prévoient une diminution de plus d'un mois par an dans le scénario d'émissions plus élevées, et de trois semaines dans le scénario à faibles émissions. Et les jours où la température élevée reste en dessous de zéro - le genre de journées d'hiver toujours froides nécessaires pour des activités telles que la motoneige, pêche sur la glace, ski de fond et plus - devraient diminuer de 56 jours par an avec des émissions de carbone plus élevées, et de 31 jours en moins d'émissions.

les hivers du Michigan, comme les générations les ont connues et se sont appuyées sur elles, semblent toucher à leur fin. Les vagues de froid et la neige abondante à effet de lac se produiront toujours, mais se produisent en rafales de moins en moins fréquentes au fil du temps.

"Alors que dans certaines régions il neige encore beaucoup, comment il se comporte une fois au sol est assez différent, " dit Rood. " Ça ne dure pas aussi longtemps, et il devient bâclé lorsque la pluie tombe dessus.

"Il n'est pas nécessaire qu'il fasse beaucoup plus chaud pour que vous receviez de la pluie à effet de lac plutôt que de la neige à effet de lac."

A la fin du siècle, dans un scénario d'émissions de carbone élevées continues, les scientifiques prévoient que la température moyenne annuelle du Michigan pourrait augmenter de 9 ou 10 degrés Fahrenheit, dit Wuebbles.

"C'est beaucoup, climat très différent, " dit-il. " A titre de comparaison, la dernière période glaciaire, qui a apporté de la glace de 2 milles d'épaisseur ici, la température était de 11 degrés plus fraîche qu'aujourd'hui."

Winter Fest est à nouveau annulé

Les festivals d'hiver du Michigan sont confrontés à un défi différent cette année :la pandémie de COVID-19. Mais ces dernières années, la perturbation est venue d'un manque de conditions hivernales traditionnelles.

Le Caro Winter Fest, dans la région du pouce de la péninsule inférieure du Michigan, événements annulés pour le deuxième hiver consécutif en janvier. The festival is built around the Midwest International Racing Association's snowmobile races.

"The past few years, the temperatures have not cooperated whatsoever before the event, " said Kris Reinelt, Caro Winter Fest board president.

Festival staff usually begin flooding the Tuscola County Fairgrounds to build ice layers for the snowmobile racing track after the holidays, in preparation for the Winter Fest races, usually held around the third weekend of January.

"We need at least a week of consistent, basses températures, " Reinelt said. "We would be able to build up 1 or 2 inches of ice a night, but then in the daytime, it would warm up and take it away.

"We have to pay for the water, we have to pay for the time. It doesn't become cost-effective to fight that battle."

The lost festivals over back-to-back years, and threatened again in 2021 by the coronavirus, cause a painful economic hit for the community.

"The racing teams bring in 300 people just among the racers, their families and friends who follow them, " Reinelt said. "In Caro, we draw another 3, 000 personnes. Those are 3, 300 people who may never come to Caro, and they are coming in the middle of winter, which is a slow time. That's so helpful to the hotels, Restaurants, grocery stores."

At Tip-Up Town U.S., Michigan's longest-running winter festival, established in 1953 and built around ice fishing on Houghton Lake, nearly a dozen people fell through the ice last January, their snowmobiles, four-wheelers and other vehicles breaking through thin ice that was open water less than a week earlier.

The Kalkaska Winterfest, in northern Lower Michigan, features one of the Midwest's largest dog-sledding sprint races, going back to 1965—longer-running than the famed Iditarod in Alaska.

En 2017, the races scheduled for January were postponed until the first week of March because of a lack of wintry conditions. When it was more of the same in March, the races were canceled.

En 2018, the races were postponed in January, then canceled in February. The next year, the January dates were again moved to February, when the latter half of the racing schedule that weekend was canceled because "everything had just melted, " said Shannon Moore, a race marshal and board secretary for the Winterfest.

"That was something I'd never seen at a dog race, ever, " elle a dit.

At the local hotel sponsoring the event and hosting race teams and their families, the All Season Resort, "they go from being completely booked to 5% occupancy when we cancel, ", a déclaré Moore.

Many of the dog-sledding teams come from out of state, as much as 10 hours away, and bring kennels and trucks, crews and families. Though 2020's races went off without a hitch in mid-February, the more races that get postponed, canceled or happen in poor conditions, the more worry that teams won't bother coming, dit Moore.

"I think we'll have to keep aiming for February and hoping we get lucky, " she said. "When we do it later in March, ça ne va pas marcher. And the January dates haven't been working, either."

Snowmobile sales plummet 70%

Carl Gerstacker was a snowmobiling fanatic.

"From the mid-'90s until about '05-'06, there was a solid 10 years where we put on just a ton of miles and had fun with it, " il a dit.

But the pastime got more expensive. And the right conditions became harder to find.

"The winters are hit-or-miss now, " he said. "We've had some really good winters, where the guys are up there (in northern Michigan) feasting on perfect conditions. But when you're making payments on a $15, 000 machine, you need some consistency."

Gerstacker and his friends were "weekend warriors"—"get off work a little early on Friday, head north, spend the weekend riding the trails, head back home Sunday and go to work on Monday." But needing to go ever farther north to find the best, most consistent riding became a time-consuming, costly effort.

"If you're chasing snow into the U.P., that's not an option anymore, " the Brighton-area resident said. "You're talking eight to 10 hours of driving to get up into the good snow and the best trails."

Gerstacker in recent years has changed out the sleds for a side-by-side, a four-wheeled recreational vehicle featuring two rows of seating that his wife and two children can enjoy with him.

"There's always dirt, there's not always snow, " he said. "I'm watching my buddies making payments on these (snowmobiles), and they are going to ride two months this year. And these quick little shots Up North are expensive, trop.

"I don't look back. I enjoy the side-by-side more than I ever did snowmobiling."

Gerstacker isn't alone in leaving snowmobiles behind. Snowmobile sales in the U.S. are down 70% from their 1997 peak, according to the International Snowmobile Manufacturers Association, a Haslett-based trade organization representing North America's four major snowmobile manufacturers:Arctic Cat; Ski-Doo/Bombardier; Polaris and Yamaha.

The Michigan Snowmobile Association, a Wyoming, Michigan-based nonprofit organization promoting and preserving the sport, also saw the changing reality. En mai 2019, its board—over the protests of some sledding die-hards—voted to become the Michigan Snowmobile and ORV Association, adding off-road vehicles under its canopy.

"They are motorized, we are motorized, and very often we have the same goals and objectives, " such as promoting trail access, said Karen Middendorp, the association's executive director.

Changing weather is unquestionably a factor in snowmobiling's decline, elle a dit.

"You can't ride every weekend, especially for the down-staters, " she said. "There's not enough snow."

Snowmobiling exploded in popularity in the mid-1990s to mid-2000s, bringing $321 million in sales, $187 million in income, and more than 6, 000 jobs to Michigan's economy, according to a 1998 Michigan State University study. It was primarily driven by baby boomers who had reached a more comfortable point in their lives and had the disposable income to afford, and the time to enjoy, snowmobiling. But now that population cohort is waning in the sport, said Edward Klim, executive director of the snowmobile manufacturers association.

"We have started to really look at millennials and Generation X. Are they recreating in the snow? Are they riding snowmobiles?" il a dit. "How does the next generation want to recreate? Some people will buy an ATV or UTV (utility terrain vehicle) and use it nine or 10 months a year."

It's a reality snowmobile dealers have been forced to confront:change or die.

"The writing was on the wall 10-plus years ago, " said Mike Nord, owner of Nord-Ride Motorsports in Mount Morris Township.

Around 2000, there were as many as 10 snowmobile dealerships in the greater Genesee County area. Nord's is now the only one left.

"There are two negative things against it:The cost of it now, and the weather, " he said. "The dealers had to look at it and say, 'This isn't a good business decision any longer.'"

Nord has survived by diversifying his vehicles, adding ATVs, side-by-sides and more. But even that comes with risks.

"If you look at some of the dealers that have fallen by the wayside, they fell into this trap, " he said. "You have to be able to accommodate (these diverse recreational vehicles), so you have to get bigger on your buildings, and that means bigger on your overheads. You finance that to increase the size of your building, and all of a sudden, we have an economic downturn. There is no Plan B."

En revanche, ski resorts have stayed relatively unscathed by warming weather because of their ability to make snow, said Amy Reents, executive director of the Midwest Ski Areas Association based in Hastings, Minnesota, a nonprofit trade group promoting skiing and ski resort interests in Michigan and surrounding states.

"We're not growing by leaps and bounds, but there haven't been any great fall-offs, " elle a dit.

During a few days of cold weather, a ski resort can lay down several feet of manufactured snow, elle a dit. It's then packed and groomed and provides a base with its own refrigeration.

"They can withstand several days in the 40s—it will do much better than the snow in your front yard, " Reents said.

"The changes in snow-making technology over the years have made it so much easier to make snow in warmer temperatures. If anything has changed for the ski industry, it's that (resorts) have decided that capital investing in snow-making technology is hugely important."

Adaptation is essential

Adaptation and diversification will become increasingly essential for Michigan's winter festivals to continue and thrive. Many have already figured that out.

From long-ago years where many of Tip-Up Town U.S.'s events were held on the thick ice of Houghton Lake, the festival now largely operates under large tents on the shore, featuring family fun, nourriture, music and merchants, said Jay Jacobs, executive director of the Houghton Lake Chamber of Commerce and a lead organizer of the festival.

Tip-Up Town typically draws about 10, 000 visitors over its two weekends of events at the end of January.

"It's very essential to us, " he said. "We rely on tourism—we don't have an industrial park; Houghton Lake doesn't have a defined downtown, a hospital, a university. These two weekends in the winter are a nice little shot in the arm for the community."

But even with diverse events not reliant on snow, ice or cold, a psychological deterrent can keep potential festival-goers home when it's warm out.

"It does affect the number of people who show up, " said Jacobs. "We've had a few years where it's been rainy, and people just don't hang around."

The Caro Winter Fest is so intricately tied to snowmobile races, it can't happen without them right now, Reinelt said. She wants to ask residents how they feel about changing that, in the wake of the recent, weather-related cancelations.

"I want to do polls on our Facebook:Would you come out in the middle of winter to watch a chainsaw ice competition, a warming tent with live entertainment, and a beer and wine bar?" she said.

A larger adaptation is needed, Rood said:a reduction in human-caused carbon emissions that are fueling climate change.

"These big changes should be major motivators to take on that carbon dioxide reduction problem, " il a dit.

©2021 the Detroit Free Press
Distribué par Tribune Content Agency, LLC.